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Watch the 5-minute walkthrough that explains how to use the +EV filters, compare PrizePicks vs Underdog, and understand where the long-term edge comes from.
โถ Getting Started TutorialYour Subscription
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Model Breakdown
๐ How to Read the Dashboard
This quick tutorial explains each column, how to interpret the No-Vig metrics, and how to understand long-term probabilities on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy.
๐ฏ 1. Event & Market
Event lists the game (e.g., Chiefs vs Bills).
Market identifies the prop type โ Passing Yards, Rebounds, Strikeouts, etc.
๐ฐ 2. Sportsbook Columns
Each sportsbook (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics) shows its line and odds. Toggle checkboxes above the table to include/exclude books in the Consensus.
๐ 3. Consensus & No-Vig Odds
Consensus = average sportsbook line (your fair baseline).
Best No-Vig removes the vig to find the โtrueโ win probability.
๐งฎ No-Vig Formula
P_over = 100 / (A + 100)
P_under = B / (B + 100)
Fair Over % = (P_over / (P_over + P_under)) ร 100
Fair Under % = (P_under / (P_over + P_under)) ร 100
The higher value is highlighted in the Best No-Vig column.
๐ฎ 4. DFS Lines (PrizePicks / Underdog / Betr)
DFS lines are compared against the Consensus line and the Best No-Vig side. The Best No-Vig cell tells you whether the sharper side is Over or Under.
- Green cells mean the DFS line is favorable for the Best No-Vig side. This could be an Over or an Under depending on what the Best No-Vig cell says.
- Red cells mean the DFS line is unfavorable or on the wrong side compared to the Best No-Vig side.
- Yellow cells mean neutral or little-to-no useful edge.
- ๐ง High Win % โ triggered when the play has a 54%+ no-vig probability and is close to consensus.
- ๐ฅ Strong Edge โ triggered when the DFS line gives a stronger advantage versus consensus. More flames means stronger value.
- โก Line Mismatch โ triggered when a DFS platform disagrees with the sharp market direction, which may signal a pricing inefficiency.
๐ก Tip: First check the Best No-Vig side, then look for green, ๐ง , ๐ฅ, or โก signals on the DFS platforms.
โ๏ธ 5. Filter Buttons Explained
Filters use a dynamic model that evaluates both line value and win probability. Not every difference is a true edge โ these tools are designed to surface only meaningful opportunities.
- ๐ PrizePicks +EV โ shows player props where the PrizePicks line is better than the market. Uses a combination of line difference, consensus comparison, and win probability to identify true value plays. Adjusts automatically across sports (NBA, NFL, MLB, etc.).
- ๐งฉ Underdog +EV โ highlights props where Underdogโs line offers a measurable edge versus consensus. Applies the same dynamic model as PrizePicks, filtering out low-quality or misleading differences.
- ๐ฏ Betr +EV โ identifies props where Betr is mispriced relative to the broader market. Particularly useful for spotting softer or slower-moving lines before they adjust.
- ๐ฅ Ben's Picks โ curated premium plays that combine strong expected value, high no-vig win percentages, and major line mismatches. Includes brain picks ๐ง , fire picks ๐ฅ, and the strongest sportsbook vs DFS discrepancies. Designed to surface the best overall plays quickly for mobile and desktop users.
- ๐ง High Confidence (54%+) โ filters to props where the model estimates at least a 54% win probability. These tend to be safer, higher hit-rate plays, though they may not always offer the largest pricing edge.
- โ๏ธ DFS Line Diff โ highlights props where PrizePicks and Underdog disagree on the same player/stat. These discrepancies often indicate uncertainty, projection changes, or early opportunities before markets settle.
- โป๏ธ Reset Filters โ clears all active filters and restores the full dataset so you can explore all available props again.
๐ก Pro Tip
Combine Consensus + No-Vig % + DFS ฮ to find strong edges. If DFS line < Consensus and No-Vig Over > 54 %, thatโs a high-value indicator.
๐ Math Insight โ Fixed Odds & Long-Term Probabilities
DFS sites use fixed payout multipliers (Mร). The break-even probability shows how often each pick must win to be neutral long-term.
๐ Break-Even Probability Formula
If an entry pays Mร when all n picks win:
โWโฟ ร M = 1โโโW = (1 / M)^(1/n)
Where W = per-pick win probability, n = picks, M = payout multiplier.
Example: 2-Pick paying 3ร โ (1/3)^(1/2) โ 0.577 โ 57.7 %.
A higher multiplier increases variance but doesnโt dramatically raise the required win rate.
| Lineup Type | Picks Needed | Payout ร | Implied Odds | Break-Even % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Play | ||||
| 2-Pick | 2/2 | 3ร | -136.6 | 57.7% |
| 3-Pick | 3/3 | 6ร | -141 | 58.5% |
| 4-Pick | 4/4 | 10ร | -128.3 | 56.2% |
| 5-Pick | 5/5 | 20ร | -124.5 | 55.5% |
| 6-Pick | 6/6 | 37.5ร | -122.5 | 55.0% |
| Flex Play | ||||
| 3-Pick | 3/3 (or 2/3) | 3ร (or 1ร) | -148.8 | 59.8% |
| 4-Pick | 4/4 (or 3/4) | 6ร (or 1.5ร) | -132 | 56.9% |
| 5-Pick | 5/5 (or 4/5, 3/5) | 10ร (or 2ร, 0.4ร) | -118.6 | 54.2% |
| 6-Pick | 6/6 (or 5/6, 4/6) | 25ร (or 2ร, 0.4ร) | -118.4 | 54.2% |
| Lineup Type | Picks Needed | Payout ร | Implied Odds | Break-Even % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | ||||
| 2-Pick | 2/2 | 3ร | -136 | 57.7% |
| 3-Pick | 3/3 | 6.5ร | -122 | 53.4% |
| 4-Pick | 4/4 | 10ร | -128 | 56.2% |
| 5-Pick | 5/5 | 20ร | -122 | 54.9% |
| Insured | ||||
| 3-Pick | 3/3 (or 2/3) | 3ร (or 1ร) | -136.6 | 57.7% |
| 4-Pick | 4/4 (or 3/4) | 6ร (or 1.5ร) | -132 | 56.9% |
| 5-Pick | 5/5 (or 4/5) | 10ร (or 2.5ร) | -127 | 56.0% |
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