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Watch the 5-minute walkthrough that explains how to use the +EV filters, compare PrizePicks vs Underdog, and understand where the long-term edge comes from.
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Model Breakdown
๐ How to Read the Dashboard
This quick tutorial explains each column, how to interpret the No-Vig metrics, and how to understand long-term probabilities on PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy.
๐ฏ 1. Event & Market
Event lists the game (e.g., Chiefs vs Bills).
Market identifies the prop type โ Passing Yards, Rebounds, Strikeouts, etc.
๐ฐ 2. Sportsbook Columns
Each sportsbook (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics) shows its line and odds. Toggle checkboxes above the table to include/exclude books in the Consensus.
๐ 3. Consensus & No-Vig Odds
Consensus = average sportsbook line (your fair baseline).
Best No-Vig removes the vig to find the โtrueโ win probability.
๐งฎ No-Vig Formula
P_over = 100 / (A + 100)
P_under = B / (B + 100)
Fair Over % = (P_over / (P_over + P_under)) ร 100
Fair Under % = (P_under / (P_over + P_under)) ร 100
The higher value is highlighted in the Best No-Vig column.
๐ฎ 4. DFS Lines (PrizePicks / Underdog / Dabble)
DFS lines are compared against the Consensus line and the Best No-Vig side. The Best No-Vig cell tells you whether the sharper side is Over or Under.
- Green cells mean the DFS line is favorable for the Best No-Vig side. This could be an Over or an Under depending on what the Best No-Vig cell says.
- Red cells mean the DFS line is unfavorable or on the wrong side compared to the Best No-Vig side.
- Yellow cells mean neutral or little-to-no useful edge.
- ๐ง High Win % โ triggered when the play has a 54%+ no-vig probability and is close to consensus.
- ๐ฅ Strong Edge โ triggered when the DFS line gives a stronger advantage versus consensus. More flames means a stronger line edge, not a higher payout.
- โก Line Mismatch โ triggered when a DFS platform disagrees with the sharp market direction, which may signal a pricing inefficiency.
- PrizePicks Goblin / Demon โ Goblin and Demon rows are alternate PrizePicks lines and use their own signal logic. They do not receive the normal 54% Brain badge. Goblins are intentionally easier lines, so BTBT labels them HIGH HIT at 65%+ and ELITE HIT at 70%+ when at least two sportsbook lines support the estimate. Demons are harder lines and are labeled DEMON VALUE at 45%+ and ELITE DEMON at 47%+, again with at least two supporting books. DEMON VALUE rows can appear in the PrizePicks value filter, while only ELITE DEMON rows are promoted into Ben's Picks. These are quality signals, not payout-adjusted mathematical EV.
๐ก Tip: First check the Best No-Vig side, then look for green, ๐ง , ๐ฅ, โก, or Goblin/Demon VALUE tags on the DFS platforms.
โ๏ธ 5. Filter Buttons Explained
Filters use a dynamic model that evaluates both line value and win probability. Not every difference is a true edge โ these tools are designed to surface only meaningful opportunities.
- ๐ PrizePicks +EV โ shows player props where the PrizePicks line is better than the market. Uses a combination of line difference, consensus comparison, and win probability to identify true value plays. Adjusts automatically across sports (NBA, NFL, MLB, etc.).
- ๐งฉ Underdog +EV โ highlights props where Underdogโs line offers a measurable edge versus consensus. Applies the same dynamic model as PrizePicks, filtering out low-quality or misleading differences.
- ๐ฏ Dabble +EV โ identifies props where Dabble is mispriced relative to the broader market. Particularly useful for spotting softer or slower-moving lines before they adjust.
- ๐บ๐ PrizePicks Goblin / Demon Signals โ special alternate PrizePicks lines are evaluated using the exact Vegas no-vig probability at that line, but they do not use the normal 54% Brain threshold. Goblins use HIGH HIT / ELITE HIT bands; Demons use DEMON VALUE / ELITE DEMON bands. The value filter uses 65%+ Goblin / 45%+ Demon, while Ben's Picks is stricter at 70%+ Goblin / 47%+ Demon.
- ๐ฅ Ben's Picks โ curated premium plays that combine strong expected value, high no-vig win percentages, and major line mismatches. Includes brain picks ๐ง , fire picks ๐ฅ, and the strongest sportsbook vs DFS discrepancies. Designed to surface the best overall plays quickly for mobile and desktop users.
- ๐ง High Confidence (54%+) โ filters to props where the model estimates at least a 54% win probability. These tend to be safer, higher hit-rate plays, though they may not always offer the largest pricing edge.
- โ๏ธ DFS Line Diff โ highlights props where PrizePicks and Underdog disagree on the same player/stat. These discrepancies often indicate uncertainty, projection changes, or early opportunities before markets settle.
- โป๏ธ Reset Filters โ clears all active filters and restores the full dataset so you can explore all available props again.
๐ก Pro Tip
Combine Consensus + No-Vig % + DFS ฮ to find strong edges. If DFS line < Consensus and No-Vig Over > 54 %, thatโs a high-value indicator.
๐ Math Insight โ Fixed Odds & Long-Term Probabilities
DFS sites use fixed payout multipliers (Mร). The break-even probability shows how often each pick must win to be neutral long-term.
๐ Break-Even Probability Formula
If an entry pays Mร when all n picks win:
โWโฟ ร M = 1โโโW = (1 / M)^(1/n)
Where W = per-pick win probability, n = picks, M = payout multiplier.
Example: 2-Pick paying 3ร โ (1/3)^(1/2) โ 0.577 โ 57.7 %.
A higher multiplier increases variance but doesnโt dramatically raise the required win rate.
| Lineup Type | Picks Needed | Payout ร | Implied Odds | Break-Even % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Play | ||||
| 2-Pick | 2/2 | 3ร | -136.6 | 57.7% |
| 3-Pick | 3/3 | 6ร | -141 | 58.5% |
| 4-Pick | 4/4 | 10ร | -128.3 | 56.2% |
| 5-Pick | 5/5 | 20ร | -124.5 | 55.5% |
| 6-Pick | 6/6 | 37.5ร | -122.5 | 55.0% |
| Flex Play | ||||
| 3-Pick | 3/3 (or 2/3) | 3ร (or 1ร) | -148.8 | 59.8% |
| 4-Pick | 4/4 (or 3/4) | 6ร (or 1.5ร) | -132 | 56.9% |
| 5-Pick | 5/5 (or 4/5, 3/5) | 10ร (or 2ร, 0.4ร) | -118.6 | 54.2% |
| 6-Pick | 6/6 (or 5/6, 4/6) | 25ร (or 2ร, 0.4ร) | -118.4 | 54.2% |
| Lineup Type | Picks Needed | Payout ร | Implied Odds | Break-Even % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | ||||
| 2-Pick | 2/2 | 3ร | -136 | 57.7% |
| 3-Pick | 3/3 | 6.5ร | -122 | 53.4% |
| 4-Pick | 4/4 | 10ร | -128 | 56.2% |
| 5-Pick | 5/5 | 20ร | -122 | 54.9% |
| Insured | ||||
| 3-Pick | 3/3 (or 2/3) | 3ร (or 1ร) | -136.6 | 57.7% |
| 4-Pick | 4/4 (or 3/4) | 6ร (or 1.5ร) | -132 | 56.9% |
| 5-Pick | 5/5 (or 4/5) | 10ร (or 2.5ร) | -127 | 56.0% |
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